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Closer than close: the two leaders and Ban Ki Moon in New York

GREEK and Turkish Cypriots were never before so close to an agreed settlement but the next few months will be critical as the United Nations push for a deal before Cyprus assumes the presidency of the EU in July next year. 

According to informed sources, both leaders gave assurances to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, during their meeting in New York last week that they were committed to producing the convergences he had asked for by the time they meet him next in January.

 “Never before were the two sides so close to an agreed solution as they are now,” a source close to the negotiations said.

Significant differences nevertheless remain between the two sides.

However, Ban made it clear to them that his Good Offices will be terminated in the next months if the sides did not break the deadlock.

The timeframe for a solution is June 2012. Until then there must be an agreement; the two sides must hold referenda and a federal Cyprus will assume the presidency of the Council of the EU.

If the deadlock is not broken by February, the UN will shut its Good Offices mission in Cyprus, the source said.

The option of freezing the talks until 2013 is unrealistic and it is something both leaders understood.

In fact, Christofias told Ban that he would not be a presidential candidate for a second term and has no plans to continue the talks in 2013. Presidential elections are schedule for February 2013.

Both Christofias and Eroglu told the UN that they believe they can bridge their differences in the immediate future.

Talks in Nicosia will start again on Thursday with one weekly meeting between the two leaders.

The leaders’ aides and work groups will take it from there while UN representatives together with their experts will be shuttling between the two sides, enriching discussions with their ideas and suggestions.

The UN assured that they are not interested in imposing any solution, seeking especially to dispel the fears of the Greek Cypriots who vehemently oppose arbitration.

According to the new roadmap, the final round of talks in Cyprus will cover all chapters that are still open: governance, territory, property and citizenship.

A new tripartite meeting will be held in New York around January 15.

Ban expects that the new meeting would be part of the final phase and not its beginning in the sense that when the leaders go to New York they would have already agreed on the four remaining chapters.

If they go to the new meeting empty handed they would just be confirming the deadlock in the talks.

Sources said there is neither time nor inclination for another tripartite meeting. In New York there would only be two possibilities: declaring a deadlock or an agreement on the internal aspects and scheduling a multilateral meeting.

If all goes as planned, the multilateral meeting will again be held in New York at the end of February or early March.

If the talks reach the point of a multilateral meeting their success is a given, but if they collapse, it will happen in January.

However, while a settlement is feasible on paper, it would have no valued if it is not approved by both communities.

The UN believes that Christofias can count on the strong backing of the EU in case of a settlement while Russia has given assurances that it will back a deal that is acceptable by both communities.

Turkey is still willing, but less enthusiastic than before.

Ban has already asked for support from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan while his envoy in Cyprus, Alexander Downer is planning a trip to Ankara.

The United States will not get involved in the talks but have pledged to provide help backstage.

The UN Secretary-general has the backing of the Security Council.

Its President, José Filipe Moraes Cabral, said that both Ban’s and Downer’s efforts have the council’s strong support.

He added: “The Council agreed that the sides should make additional efforts and display the necessary political will to move forward and conclude the negotiations in a positive way.”