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No escaping scorching heat
CYPRUS will face Sahara-like conditions in 10 to 20 years if climate change continues at the current rate, experts said yesterday as temperatures clocked in at five degrees higher than average for this time of year.
The stark assessment of Cyprus’ environmental future came a day after the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the global average temperature in May was the hottest on record.
Yesterday two people ended up in the intensive care unit of Nicosia general hospital after suffering heatstroke. The two foreign workers were admitted as the highest temperature reached 39 degrees Celsius, five degrees higher than the average, which are expected to continue in the coming days.
The average temperature in May was also above average; by one degree centigrade overall while rainfall was just 65 per cent of the average for this time of year..
Marios Theophilou, meteorological officer in the Ministry of Agriculture, said that although the May average increase was too brief to indicate a trend, the fluctuation throughout the month was significant.
“Between the 9th and the 16th of May there were some extremely high temperatures for the month, ranging from two to eight degrees above the average.”
The long term statistics, which give a more reliable indication of the trend, are no less worrying. From 1900-1991 the average temperature in Cyprus rose from 18.9C to 19.5C. The average is now 20.2C degrees. In other words, Cyprus warmed more in the last 20 years than it did in the previous 90.
Asked about this trend, Theophilou said “We have noticed, as globally, a small but steady acceleration in the rate of increase in temperature, and we are now trying to limit the future increase to two degrees by 2050.”
A research paper published earlier this year by Greek professors with the participation of the Cyprus Institute showed with computer models that the increased number of ‘heatwave days’, which are defined as the number of days with temperatures exceeding 35C, simulated for 2021–2050 shows that there will be 25 more ‘heatwave days’ per year by then.
Even a 1.3C increase by 2050, which a 2007 government report, written by IA Co Water Consultants, said is a likely scenario, will have a devastating impact on Cyprus ecology.
Antonia Theodosiou, representative of the Federation of Environmental and Ecological Organisations in Cyprus (FEEOC) said “The increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall are causing major damages, and in Cyprus this means desertification.”
Theodosiou was keen to stress that this irreversible desertification is not caused by climate change, but is definitely made worse because of it.
“There is a misunderstanding that desertification is caused by climate change, but this is wrong. Desertification is caused by human activity, but roads and large developments etc. However, Climate change enlarges the problem.”
Theodosiou said that while desertification is theoretically reversible, in practice the vital measures are being implemented far too slowly and full desertification could happen in just ten years. “We must have actions and developments that are harmonious with the environment, otherwise you will begin to see the sorts of landscape in the Aphrodite’s Rock area [throughout Cyprus]. Golf courses, for example, are unacceptable.”
Tassos Challis, an environmental scientist at the FEEOC agreed that desertification would inevitably continue as rainfall decreased. He also said that rains would come in more extreme and concentrated spells, which the land is unable to absorb because of the extensive developments.
“In our lifetime we will see less rainfall overall, but in more extreme events, and in our life time we could see Sahara-like conditions.”
However, Challis said that if the government could improve its water management policies, the government could begin to adapt and mitigate the inevitable climatic change.
“We need to reduce the impact by promoting renewables, improve waste water treatment facilities and raise public awareness. For example, with increasing extremity of events, domestic water collection could be viable.”
Challis also said that water was priced too cheaply by the government, which means people are using this precious resource too freely.
