LAST MONTH might prove to be just like any month, any February of any year in the calendar cycle. Or it could prove to be the month that saw a fundamental shift in Turkish policy on Cyprus and the obstinate conflict that refuses to be quiet.

Three key Turkish figures in the top echelons of power broke new ground, opening backchannels of communication with Greek Cypriots for the first time in decades.

Mid-February, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu invited Greek Cypriot representatives of academia and civil society to his offices in Ankara to discuss Greek-Turkish relations and the Cyprus problem.

Last weekend, Greek Cypriot journalists and politicians shared a 90-minute meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan and one hour with EU Minister Egemen Bagis in Istanbul. This was the first time a Turkish leader directly addressed Greek Cypriot representatives, specifically, journalists from Alithia, Politis and the Cyprus Mail, as well as former Cyprus-EU chief negotiator Takis Hadjidemetriou and United Democrats leader Praxoulla Antoniadou Kyriacou.

Turkish Cypriot journalists also attended but one could argue they were only there to hold the candles as the real date was between the Turkish leadership and the Greek Cypriot contingent.

Perhaps equally important was the presence of the Greek delegation. Cyprus has always been used as a lever for thawing or heating relations between Greece and Turkey. More recently, it’s been considered a thorn in the side of improving Greco-Turkish relations. Removing the Cyprus problem would probably eliminate the biggest obstacle to peaceful cooperation between the two NATO members in the Eastern Mediterranean.

So what messages did Erdogan give?

 

Time is right for a solution

 

“The time is now for Cyprus, with four pro-solution leaders in the two communities and two ‘motherlands’.”

This is significant in that it acknowledges that President Demetris Christofias actually wants a solution. As Bagis put it: “The problem and the solution are both on the island. The two leaders both want a solution. The two prime ministers of the guarantor countries also want a solution. The two leaders know what the problems are and who is blocking the solution.”

Now, when Turkey backs you up on your solution credentials, it goes some way to undermining those critics who argue you’re simply manoeuvring to avoid blame for the collapse of the talks while preparing for re-election.

A side message here was that Ankara would not let contender to the Turkish Cypriot throne Dervis Eroglu walk out of the talks should he get elected. However, by the time he gets clued up and builds a workable, trusting relationship with Christofias, too much time will have passed- an obvious nod to Mehmet Ali Talat.

 

 

Leadership skills

“A solution requires leadership, strong will and determination.”

The inference here is that Erdogan has all three qualities, as displayed in last month’s mop up of unruly army officers, while Christofias needs to acquire all three and fast.

The Turkish PM acknowledged that the Greek Cypriot leader was taking a lot of flak from the press on the negotiations, but tempered that with: “We would not like to see some excuses cast a shadow over this process because the goal at the end of the day is to reach a comprehensive settlement, and I believe that if the necessary strong determination and will is presented then we can achieve a fair and lasting result in as short a time as possible.”

On parliament’s resolution calling for an end to guarantees in Cyprus and by extension Europe, Erdogan said: “Internal domestic problems cannot constitute an excuse for the actions of the Greek Cypriot side.”

In the same vein but in slight contradiction, Bagis stressed that the Cyprus issue was such a delicate issue in Turkey that no elected politician could be expected to sacrifice on Cyprus just for the EU. He also noted that the nationalist party in Turkey had doubled its vote in five years to 16 per cent by campaigning solely on the platform that Erdogan had sold out northern Cyprus.

“So you have to understand Turkey is not an emirate, it’s not a sultanate where the prime minister makes a decision and everybody obeys. This is a democracy, and we have to always keep the balance and watch and be careful about the sensitivities of the people,” explained Bagis.

 

Turkey’s support is genuine

“Turkey genuinely seeks a fair and lasting comprehensive solution based on the joint declaration of the two leaders on May 23, 2008.”

Erdogan referred specifically to his support for a bizonal, bicommunal federation as defined by the relevant UN resolutions, with political equality and a single international identity. UN Special Adviser to Cyprus Alexander Downer found this to be particularly “significant” since it was the first time a Turkish PM had been “so specific and so clear about Turkey’s support” for the agreed basis of a solution.

However, after May 23, Talat and Christofias also agreed on the idea of “single citizenship” and “single sovereignty”. This was not given specific reference by Erdogan though one could refer to Bagis’ assertion that Turkey is ready to support any solution agreed by the two leaders which has majority support from their communities.

 

Withdrawal of Turkish troops

“Turkish troops would leave Cyprus, perhaps in their entirety.”

Erdogan: “With respect to the withdrawal of troops, we’ve spoken about this before. Over a period of time, we’ve said before that those troops can be withdrawn.” However, Turkey will not respond to calls for immediate troop withdrawal, he added.

Bagis was more specific: “Any solution that President Talat and President Christofias can come up with and convince their respective communities will have Turkey’s full blessing and support. As long as it is based on political equality, as long as Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots accept the solution, Turkey will be there. If that solution involves withdrawing our troops, we will withdraw our troops.”

He said that the top Turkish military brass, also known as the “deep state”, had approved the Annan plan back in 2004 which called for a reduction in Turkish troops to 650 and Greek troops to 950.

Bagis even hinted that the option of all troops leaving the island was not unthinkable if the two communities agreed on it. “The Turkish military was OK with the Annan plan. It was difficult. And by now, in the fifth anniversary of the Annan plan, there would be referenda on the island, to zero the number of troops on the island.”

 

Turkey will honour its signature

“Our goal is to achieve a lasting comprehensive settlement to the problem in Cyprus. We are ready to do our share to achieve that goal, and no one should or can doubt Turkey’s sincerity,” Erdogan said. A significant factor here is the acknowledgement, perhaps for the first time, that fear, suspicion and mistrust plagued both communities and not just the one.

Again, Bagis was more forthcoming on Greek Cypriot fears that Turkey will not stick to its part of the bargain. “Turkey does not make a promise until she’s ready. But once we make a promise, we always keep it, especially as long as Erdogan is prime minister. I can assure you this is a man who has spent a whole life keeping his promises, knowing that it will hurt him.

He told a story from Burgenstock in 2004 when the then President Tassos Papadopoulos and Greek PM Costas Karamanlis approached Erdogan with an offer. They pledged to push for a date for the start of EU accession talks with Turkey if he agreed to postpone the solution talks in Switzerland. Papadopoulos argued that they weren’t ready and needed more time. Erdogan refused, citing a promise he made to the UN Secretary-General to always be one step ahead.

“I spent more time with him in the last eight years than with my family. I know him, he’s a man of his word. Either he doesn’t give the word, but if he does, his word is stronger than any signature, commitment, law or parliament action, I can assure you of that,” said Bagis.

To underline the fear imprinted in both communities, Bagis recalled that his father was as a teacher in Paphos in the 1960s, before he was born.

“He would tell my mother he’s going to the coffee shop at night, but he would go to the ceiling of the apartment that they lived in and wait in front of the gun in case someone came to attack our family.

“We all hear stories like this. I heard it when I was growing up, but it’s enough. We have to think about our children, not our childhood, but our children,” he said.

 

Direct dialogue

“Let’s get together and talk through our problems in a four or five-party meeting.”

One of the stumbling blocks identified in finding a solution is the lack of mutual understanding and trust between Turkey and the Greek Cypriots, who never have direct dialogue. Erdogan has suggested that the two leaders on the island meet with the two guarantor powers, Greece and Turkey, in four-party talks. Britain as a non-“motherland” is not necessarily needed though would be accepted if requested.

Christofias rejected the proposal arguing that this would mean de facto recognition of Talat as president. The Turkish PM counter-offered saying the meeting could take place under the auspices of the UNSG, a bit like what’s happening in Nicosia airport now. Another proposal was to include Spain, currently holding the EU Presidency, which has friendly relations with both Cyprus and Turkey.

 

Greek Cypriots on Turkey’s EU accession

“Who do Greek Cypriots think they are blocking an entire energy chapter?”

Turkey clearly does not like being pushed into a corner, and this was made clear by all three Turkish officials. The impression given was that you would get more working with Turkey than going against it. Another view is that Greek Cypriots wouldn’t even be on the Turkish radar if they didn’t use what few levers they had at their disposal.

Bagis was at pains to stress that EU membership was really to the benefit of Greek Cypriots. Erdogan offered to give fresh water to the Greek Cypriots through a pipeline from Turkey to Cyprus. “I don’t know, maybe the Greek Cypriots won’t want that water, maybe they’ll say it’s Turkish water.” Bagis described EU accession as the “golden formula” that would eliminate fears and suspicions on both sides of the divide.

 

End to arms purchases

“Greece and Turkey need to stop buying arms and invest in peace and prosperity for the region.”

Both Bagis and Erdogan gave a lot of emphasis to improving relations with Greece. Bagis noted that some countries were against Turkey’s EU membership because they wanted to continue selling arms to both Turkey and Greece.

“We were about to have a war over some rocks on the Aegean,” said Bagis, adding that the Erdogan government has done much to enhance ties between the two historic foes since coming to power.

Erdogan said: “What happened has happened in the past, we should leave it there. We have to look at the future and how we build the future…What we’re saying to our friends is to not engage in more armaments because we should be investing in the people, that’s what gains us results.”

In fact, ambitions to create “zero problems” with its neighbours is one of Turkey’s driving forces in seeking to conclude the Cyprus problem, that and its need to stay on the path to EU accession.

One factor worth noting here is the indication that Turkey sees the Greek Cypriots as being inextricably linked to Greece in the way Turkish Cypriots are to Turkey. For example, Turkey might misguidedly assume that Greek Cypriots would accept a solution whereby Turkey retains guarantor rights over a Turkish Cypriot constituent state if there was a similar Greek guarantee for the Greek Cypriot constituent state.

 

 

WHAT THE ANALYST SAYS

 

Hugh Pope of the International Crisis Group in Istanbul said the meeting between the top Turkish leaders and Greek Cypriots was “absolutely marvellous”.

“There is no established track two between Turkey and the Greek Cypriots. It’s immediately apparent that the two sides are much closer conceptually than they are rhetorically.

“If you blindfolded the two sides and found out what’s really going on, they are not that far apart. It’s a matter of trust. Can a Greek Cypriot trust in a normalised future with Turkey, that troops will go? The only way they can really believe that in their hearts is if they meet Erdogan and Davutoglu face to face,” he said.

“The key thing stopping negotiations leaving first base is Christofias wondering whether Turkey is there for him, whether he’s really negotiating a solution or an interim agreement. He will only ever know if he meets them.”

Pope argued that Turkey was trying in its own way to reach out to Greek Cypriots. “Just like Christofias must be seeing a brick wall rushing up to him, Turkey also knows that failure in the talks puts the Cyprus problems in the deep freeze indefinitely.

“They’ve adopted new language, talking about two presidents. They’re offering to bring in an EU country to make it easier for Christofias to meet. It’s the Turkish equivalent of an appeal, saying ‘please let’s meet and talk’,” said Pope.

The analyst argued that the decision was taken as far back as 2002 that it would be better for the Turkish Cypriots to join the EU before the Turks. “Plan A is not independence of the ‘TRNC’. It’s definitely plan B though.”