The dry bulk freight market in 2025 delivered steadier, more restrained performance rather than the sharp peaks seen in previous cycles, reflecting a year of moderation rather than exuberance.

Average daily earnings, adjusted for inflation, reached $14,255, roughly one third below the long-term average of $21,970, keeping the market firmly within historical norms.

As reported by newmoney, unlike the hyper-cyclical years of the 2000s or the post-pandemic surge, rates remained resilient without approaching extreme highs.

What stands out, however, is not the level of freight rates themselves but the conditions under which they were achieved. According to Angelica Kemene, an analyst at OPTIMA Shipping Services, the market delivered solid average returns despite moderate global growth, waning coal demand and tightening environmental regulations.

“The market’s ability to generate positive results in this environment underlines the importance of strategic fleet positioning by ship class and trading route,” Kemene said in OPTIMA’s review of 2025 and outlook for 2026.

That dynamic is particularly relevant for Cyprus-based dry bulk operators, many of whom manage diversified fleets from Limassol rather than relying on exposure to peak cycles.

Cyprus hosts one of the world’s largest shipmanagement clusters, with the Cyprus Shipping Chamber (CSC) describing the island as home to “some of the largest shipmanagement companies globally”, overseeing fleets active across Capesize, Panamax and Supramax segments.

At the same time, the government has pointed to a roughly 20 per cent increase in the Cyprus ship registry by gross tonnage, reaching its highest level in more than two decades, emphasising the scale of Cyprus-linked shipping activity.

In the dry bulk space, this structure has translated into a stronger focus on fleet composition and trading flexibility. Cyprus-based operators with exposure to midsize and geared vessels have mirrored the broader market split between Capesize volatility and steadier earnings from diversified trades.

More broadly, performance across ship classes in 2025 was uneven. Capesize vessels emerged as clear winners, with average earnings around 25 per cent above their 2016–2025 norm.

Demand for long-haul iron ore and bauxite shipments, particularly linked to new projects in West Africa, provided sustained support.

By contrast, Panamax and Handysize vessels underperformed, with earnings about 4 per cent below their ten-year averages.

Typically exposed to regional and shorter-haul trades, these segments faced headwinds from shifts in cargo composition and the gradual decline in coal demand.

Supramax vessels offered a modest upside surprise, posting gains of roughly 4 per cent versus their recent cycle. Increased exposure to bauxite, agricultural cargoes and other minor bulks helped offset weaker segments, reinforcing the market’s preference for vessels combining flexibility with access to expanding trades.

On the demand side, seaborne dry cargo volumes edged higher, with both shipments and tonne-miles rising by more than 2 per cent year on year.

While iron ore remains the backbone of the market, coal continues to lose ground. At the same time, bauxite, agricultural commodities and other smaller bulk cargoes are gaining share, creating a more diversified and resilient demand profile.

“Panamax/Kamsarmax and Ultramax vessels are benefiting from this evolving ‘bulk economy’,” Kemene said, adding that Capesize ships remain closely tied to steel and energy markets while increasingly capturing revenue from large, long-distance projects.

Supply growth, meanwhile, remained contained. The global dry bulk fleet expanded by about 2.5 per cent in 2025, a pace expected to continue into 2026.

Fleet demographics show a bar-bell age structure, with a concentration of vessels aged 11–15 years and a sizable cohort over 20 years old, particularly among Handysize and Supramax ships.

Operational factors have also helped absorb capacity. Slower sailing speeds, high vessel utilisation and periodic congestion at major export hubs have effectively tightened available supply.

Looking ahead, OPTIMA expects continuity rather than disruption in 2026. Global economic growth is forecast to ease slightly but remain positive, while international trade is likely to cool following the recovery seen in 2025.

Dry bulk demand is projected to grow by around 2 per cent in tonne-miles, broadly matching effective fleet growth once lower speeds and regulatory constraints are taken into account.

Forward freight markets point to modest upside for Capesize and Panamax/Kamsarmax vessels, while Supramax rates are expected to remain broadly flat or marginally lower.

“The market is not positioning for another hyper-cycle,” Kemene said, “but for a balanced and relatively firm year for larger and mid-size ships.”

Beyond 2026, OPTIMA identifies three structural themes shaping the next five years.

Resource nationalism is gaining traction, with countries such as Indonesia, Gabon and Guinea increasingly favouring domestic processing over raw exports. While this may curb some primary metal trades, it is also expected to generate new flows of alumina, ferroalloys and hot-briquetted iron.

At the same time, demand for energy-transition metals, including lithium, nickel and copper, remains small in volume but is expanding rapidly, opening new high-value bulk and breakbulk routes.

In parallel, the growing diversity of smaller bulk cargoes favours geared midsize vessels capable of serving fragmented and niche trades.

On the supply side, the global orderbook stands at about 12.5 per cent of the existing fleet, with deliveries heavily skewed toward Ultramax and Panamax/Kamsarmax vessels through 2026–2028.

Supramax and Handysize segments, by contrast, face limited newbuilding activity and an increasingly ageing fleet.

Fleet growth is expected to peak in 2026–2027 before easing toward the end of the decade. The average fleet age has climbed to 13 years, with nearly one-third of vessels aged 15 years or more.

Low scrapping levels remain a concern, although rising compliance costs linked to CII, EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime regulations are likely to accelerate retirements among older vessels.

With shipyard capacity largely committed and construction lead times exceeding two years, owners have effectively locked in the supply outlook for the remainder of the decade. As a result, any meaningful shift in market balance will take time to materialise.