Ports, energy installations and military facilities across the Persian Gulf face a heightened risk of attack, maritime security firm EOS Risk has warned, as fresh US strikes on Iran raise fears of retaliation against regional states and commercial shipping. 

The warning carries particular weight for Cyprus following the deadly attack on the Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy earlier this month. According to the Shipping Deputy Ministry, 23 Cyprus-flagged vessels are operating in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, placing the island’s shipping register directly within the widening security crisis. 

In its latest security assessment, EOS Risk kept all ports in Gulf states at a high-risk rating of 4 out of 5, meaning an attack is considered possible. It urged shipping companies and vessel operators to strengthen precautions during port approaches and regional transits. 

The warning followed Iranian missile and drone attacks against US-linked facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan during the night of July 17 to 18. Air-defence systems were activated across the region, with Bahrain and Kuwait reporting interceptions. 

Two US military personnel were killed during an Iranian attack in Jordan, while another was initially reported missing. Washington subsequently launched another wave of strikes against Iranian targets, saying the operation was intended to weaken the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ ability to threaten merchant vessels and civilian crews in the Strait of Hormuz. 

EOS Risk assessed the probability of further Iranian retaliation as particularly high, warning that military bases, energy plants and port infrastructure could be targeted within 24 hours of the American strikes. 

The alert comes as shipping through Hormuz slows sharply. Only four vessels crossed the strait on Sunday, down from eight on Saturday, according to LSEG data. No liquefied natural gas carriers had been visibly tracked through the waterway since Thursday, although some vessels may have switched off their transponders. 

The disruption has left LNG cargoes accumulating inside the Gulf. Seven loaded Qatari carriers were estimated to be holding around 570,000 tonnes of LNG by mid-July, while approximately 1.9 million tonnes of tanker capacity remained positioned in the region. 

Shipping companies have also grown increasingly reluctant to use US military-guided routes through Hormuz. Five vessels were attacked in Omani waters between July 7 and 15, prompting some operators to suspend voyages despite Washington’s insistence that the waterway remains open. The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Centre has classified the threat to shipping as “severe”, one level below its highest category. 

For Cyprus, the threat became painfully tangible when the GFS Galaxy attack caused an engine-room fire and forced 23 crew members to abandon the vessel. The missing third engineer, 30-year-old Indian national Heramb Karmarkar, was later reported dead by his family. No Cypriots were among the crew. 

Shipping Deputy Minister Marina Hadjimanolis said  that “the Cyprus authorities were maintaining contact with the vessel’s management company and monitoring ships under the island’s flag in the region.” The ministry had already issued a security circular when the conflict began in February, advising operators to introduce additional precautions. 

The maritime disruption is now feeding directly into energy markets. Brent crude rose above $90 a barrel on Monday, while Gulf oil shipments began slowing again after briefly recovering during the first half of July. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about one-fifth of global oil trade, making any sustained interruption a risk far beyond the region’s ports.