The latest ICS Maritime Barometer highlights continued pressure on the global shipping industry, as maritime leaders face a combination of geopolitical instability, rising regulatory demands and growing cyber-security risks.

Based on responses from 133 senior executives, the third annual edition of the report points to a decline in confidence across key operational areas, emphasising the need for clearer regulation, greater investment and improved coordination at both national and international levels.

Almost 43 per cent of respondents were shipowners, while nearly 30 per cent were ship managers, offering a representative snapshot of operational decision-makers across all major shipping sectors.

Political instability remained the most pressing concern for the second consecutive year, reflecting growing unease over the wider geopolitical environment.

From protracted conflicts to shifting alliances and sanctions regimes, respondents pointed to the direct operational and financial impact of political disruptions, from rerouted shipping lanes to surging insurance costs and crewing challenges in conflict zones.

ICS chairperson Emanuele Grimaldi observed that this instability is “making and reshaping our business operating environments,” adding that it is contributing to “caution and uncertainty” in commercial decisions.

In his view, geopolitical risks are no longer background noise, they are reshaping trade relationships and trade routes in ways that carry “costly implications for our industry and the wider economy,” ultimately “strengthening the possibility of a global recession.”

Cyber-attacks climbed to second place in the risk rankings, underlining the industry’s growing dependence on digital infrastructure and the perceived vulnerability of navigation, cargo management and communications systems.

Respondents referenced increasing cases of GPS spoofing, signal jamming and ransomware attacks, noting that digital threats now extend far beyond traditional IT systems and into the heart of vessel operations.

The report emphasises that while most companies have made investments in cyber-security, few feel fully confident in their ability to respond to emerging digital threats.

Alongside these external risks, the Barometer identifies increasing administrative burdens and persistent trade barriers as additional layers of pressure.

Several executives voiced concern over regulatory fragmentation, particularly around customs reporting and decarbonisation frameworks.

The proliferation of new digital and environmental compliance requirements, they noted, is often introduced without sufficient consultation or transitional support, placing disproportionate strain on smaller operators and limiting fleet adaptability.

Environmental regulation, while no longer the single highest-ranking issue, continues to dominate strategic planning across the sector.

The 2024–2025 findings show that maritime leaders regard regulation as the most impactful factor driving the green transition, yet confidence in being able to navigate this shift is limited.

Respondents cited ongoing uncertainty over timelines, enforcement mechanisms and reporting obligations tied to the IMO’s revised GHG strategy and the European Union’s emissions trading system.

They also raised concerns about the lack of harmonised global frameworks, which they said risks creating competitive distortion between regional players.

Public funding was identified as the second most significant influence on the decarbonisation process, but also as the area in which confidence is lowest.

The report highlights widespread scepticism about the willingness or capacity of governments to provide sufficient financial support for clean fuel infrastructure, retrofitting, and fleet renewal.

While private investment was ranked slightly higher in terms of confidence, many respondents noted that commercial lending for decarbonisation remains conditional on clearer policy signals and viable fuel supply chains.

This year’s Barometer also marks a shift in how industry leaders assess fuel-related risks. For the first time in four years, the availability of low- and zero-carbon fuels overtook infrastructure as the key barrier to investment.

Executives expressed concern that even where demand exists, global production and distribution of alternatives such as biofuels, methanol and ammonia remains severely limited.

The lack of availability, they said, makes it difficult to commit to long-term fleet investments or to align internal decarbonisation strategies with regulatory targets.

Fuel preferences among respondents have remained relatively stable. LNG and biofuels were once again seen as the most commercially viable options in the short term, though some participants noted that the outlook for LNG has become more cautious given its long-term carbon profile.

Meanwhile, enthusiasm for methanol, ammonia and hydrogen was tempered by worries over safety standards, regulatory clarity and cost-effectiveness.

The general consensus remains that until international guidelines, port infrastructure and fuel supply chains are aligned, industry uptake will remain slow.

In terms of national insights, the United Kingdom featured prominently in this year’s responses, accounting for the largest share of participants from a single country, with 20 out of the 133 respondents.

UK-based executives ranked cyber-security threats as their top concern, followed by trade barriers, increased administrative burdens, and difficulties in recruiting and retaining qualified crew.

These results largely mirrored the global trends, suggesting that the UK’s maritime sector is subject to the same structural pressures felt across the broader shipping industry.

Although the ICS Barometer does not include a regional breakdown for Cyprus, recent developments confirm that many of the challenges it highlights are also felt locally.

First, Cyprus is actively preparing to comply with the EU’s FuelEU Maritime regulation, which enters into force on January 1, 2025, requiring ships to monitor energy use and reduce emissions in European waters. The Cyprus Shipping Chamber (CSC) has called for urgent

action on maritime security following Houthi rebel attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

It warned in December 2023 that “the impact on the safety and well‑being of the crews should not be underestimated.”

This aligns directly with concerns raised in the Barometer about geopolitical instability affecting crews and vessel operations.

Furthermore, Cyprus commands a major global shipping role, ranking among the world’s top 10 merchant fleets by deadweight tonnage and operating the third-largest fleet within the EU.

Limassol port, the island’s primary maritime gateway, hosts numerous ship-management companies and handles both cargo and cruise traffic, reflecting its strategic importance.

This year’s findings also mark a shift in how maritime risk has evolved over time.

In 2021–2022, epidemics and cyber-attacks topped the list, followed by administrative burdens.

By 2022–2023, concerns had shifted to political and financial instability, with cyber threats still ranking high. A year later, malicious physical attacks appeared for the first time.

Now, in 2024–2025, trade barriers enter the top four for the first time, joining political instability, cyber-attacks, and administrative complexity.

On the impact side, regulation has remained the dominant issue across all survey years, but public and private funding now feature together for the first time, signalling the growing weight of financial uncertainty in the energy transition equation.

Across all categories, the 2024–2025 edition reflects a broader shift in industry mood. Confidence among maritime leaders is noticeably lower than in previous years, especially in areas tied to government coordination, digital safety and long-term regulatory predictability.

While innovation and adaptation remain strong across parts of the sector, many executives noted that the gap between ambition and implementation continues to widen.

In a separate message, Grimaldi underlined that “closer collaboration between industry, governments and regulators is essential” if shipping is to maintain “sustainable and resilient business operations” in this complex environment. He added that “we are living in an era marked by growing uncertainty, and so knowledge is more powerful than ever.”

Building consensus, he concluded, is the key to ensuring both the stability of global trade and the security of the workforce that makes it possible.

At the same time, the Barometer makes clear that the industry is not calling for less regulation, rather, it is asking for regulation that is coherent, predictable and accompanied by the necessary tools and incentives to enable compliance.

Several respondents expressed hope that recent developments at the IMO, including the agreement on indicative checkpoints and market-based measures, would lay the groundwork for a more unified global pathway toward net-zero.

Until then, however, the sense is that maritime operators will continue to operate in a climate of managed uncertainty, responding to external pressures with caution rather than confidence.