Although an Israeli attack on Iran was seen as a possibility it still seems to have taken most of the world by surprise when it happened in the early hours of Friday. Israel’s air strikes hit nuclear sites all over Iran and reportedly killed three senior generals as well as two leading nuclear scientists. The fear is that this is just the beginning and that a bigger operation will be undertaken, if Israel’s aim is to end Iran’s nuclear threat permanently. It is unlikely, according to military analysts, that the main nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz, which was one of the targets of the air-strikes, has been destroyed and that more strikes would be required.

President Donald Trump, gave full US backing to Israel’s air strikes, which he described as a “very successful attack,” and urged Iran “to come to the table to make a deal (about its nuclear programme) before it’s too late.” He was referring the negotiations between the US and Iran, the sixth round of which was scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday. Trump urged Iran to make a deal “before there is nothing left.” In a post on his Truth Social platform, he warned that any new Israeli attacks would be “even more brutal.” He could not have made it any clearer that the US would fully back Israel’s subsequent actions if Iran failed to give up its nuclear programme.

The danger of a regional conflagration has never been higher. This was a declaration of war by Israel. After the humiliation it suffered at the hands of Israel, what is the likelihood Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would agree to end the nuclear programme, which would be an even bigger humiliation for his regime? Would Iran, which saw the attack as a declaration of war by Israel accept the surrender terms without a fight? Israel “has now crossed every red line,” said Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi who warned that “Iran will respond decisively and proportionately to these unlawful and cowardly acts.”

France’s president Emmanuel Macron led the calls for de-escalation, “to avoid jeopardising the stability of the entire region,” urging all parties “to exercise maximum restraint.” Trump had no diplomatic words to offer, telling Iran that it had to make a deal now because “the next already planned attacks will be even more brutal.” The US had not ruled the sixth round of negotiations with Iran in Oman going ahead on Sunday, even though such talks seem very unlikely. There could be more air strikes by Israel before then and the fighting could start on other fronts.

We hope there will be a de-escalation and show of restraint because it is our region that will suffer the consequences of a conflagration, but we suspect Israel will be stepping up its strikes with the aim of delivering the knockout blow to Iran. This will not be good for our region.