Jumbo maintains 2026 outlook as sales recover from conflict

Greek retail group Jumbo maintained its outlook for 2026 this week, forecasting sales growth of around 5 per cent and net profit of between €310 million and €320 million, after sales recovered following the temporary ceasefire in the Iran conflict. 

The guidance was reiterated during the group’s annual general meeting on July 15, which recorded shareholder participation representing approximately 73 per cent of the company’s share capital. 

During the meeting, shareholders also approved the distribution of a €0.70 dividend per share from the profits of the 2025 financial year, corresponding to a total payment of approximately €94m. The company said that “the temporary ceasefire reached in late June validated management’s earlier assessment that the slowdown recorded at the height of the conflict would be temporary and reversible.” 

Following the initial de-escalation, sales recovered and reversed the downward trend. Management said the earlier slowdown reflected consumer sentiment rather than any weakening in the group’s underlying performance. 

Group sales increased by around 7 per cent year-on-year in June, bringing growth for the first half of 2026 to approximately 4 per cent. The recovery continued during the first days of July, when sales recorded double-digit growth. However, management emphasised that the ceasefire remains fragile and that market conditions have not yet returned to normal. 

Accordingly, based on the information currently available, Jumbo maintained its full-year guidance, while noting that the outlook will be reassessed when the group publishes its financial results for the first half of 2026. 

Meanwhile, Jumbo’s shares will trade ex-dividend from July 22, while the record date has been set for July 23. Payment of the €0.70 dividend will begin on July 28. The group had already distributed an extraordinary cash payment of approximately €67m to shareholders in March. 

As a result, by the end of July, Jumbo will have returned a total of around €161.2m to shareholders during 2026, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 5 per cent. 

At the same time, management said the group’s capital allocation policy remains unchanged, with organic growth continuing to be its main priority. This will be supported by investments in new stores and distribution centres, while the group will also continue pursuing the acquisition of properties that it currently leases. 

In parallel, Jumbo intends to maintain its policy of distributing approximately one-third of consolidated net profit to shareholders through dividends. Should surplus capital arise beyond the group’s operational and strategic requirements, management said it may consider another extraordinary cash distribution before the end of the year. 

Turning to the group’s individual markets, Cyprus demonstrated resilience despite its geographical proximity to the conflict in the Middle East. Sales at Jumbo stores in Cyprus increased by around 6 per cent year-on-year in June, while sales for the first half of the year grew by approximately 4 per cent compared with the same period in 2025. 

Greece remained the group’s main growth driver, recording the strongest organic growth across Jumbo’s markets. Net sales at the parent company, excluding transactions between group companies, rose by around 10 per cent in June. For the January-to-June period, sales in Greece increased by approximately 7 per cent. 

Bulgaria also continued to record strong growth, with sales from its stores and local online platform rising by around 12 per cent year-on-year in June. For the first six months of the year, sales in Bulgaria were up by approximately 11 per cent. Jumbo said the Bulgarian government’s more expansionary fiscal policy is expected to support consumer spending in the short term, without removing longer-term concerns over the country’s public finances. 

Romania, by contrast, continued to record weaker results, with sales from the group’s stores and online platform falling by approximately 6 per cent in June. For the first half of 2026, Romanian sales were down by around 7 per cent year-on-year. Nevertheless, Jumbo said the comparison is expected to become more favourable during the second half of the year, as the corresponding period in 2025 was affected by an increase in the VAT rate and the depreciation of the Romanian leu. 

The company also said the European Union’s decision to impose a levy on low-value imports from countries outside the bloc is expected to help create a more level playing field across the European market. 

As of June 30, the Jumbo Group operated 89 stores, comprising 53 in Greece, six in Cyprus, ten in Bulgaria and 20 in Romania. The group also operates online platforms in Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria and Romania. Meanwhile, a new hypermarket in Baia Mare, Romania, is expected to begin operating before the end of the year. 

Through franchise agreements, Jumbo is also present in seven additional countries, with 46 stores operating under its brand in Albania, Kosovo, Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Israel. The seventh Jumbo store in Israel began operating in July, while another two stores are expected to open before the end of 2026.