Global air passenger demand is expected to more than double by 2050, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said on Monday, with growth led by emerging markets in Asia-Pacific and Africa as demand for travel continues to outpace mature regions.

In its latest long-term demand projections, IATA said passenger demand is expected to reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) by 2050 under its mid-range scenario, up from 9 trillion RPKs in 2024. That implies a compound annual growth rate of 3.1 per cent over the 2024-2050 period.

Under its higher-growth scenario, demand would rise to 21.9 trillion RPKs by 2050, reflecting annual growth of 3.3 per cent. In its lower-growth case, demand would still reach 19.5 trillion RPKs, based on growth of 2.9 per cent a year.

IATA said the different scenarios reflect alternative assumptions for long-term economic growth, population trends, aviation fuel prices, the global energy transition and the pace of air transport capacity development.

“The outlook for air travel is positive,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said.

“People want to travel and, under all our modeled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century. That is good news for global economic and social development because aviation growth will catalyze opportunities, including jobs, around the world,” he added.

Walsh said the report should provide governments, the aviation industry and energy suppliers with a basis for long-term planning, while also emphasising the need for policies that support infrastructure development, easier market access, regulatory harmonisation and a successful clean energy transition.

IATA said growth would vary significantly by region, shaped by differences in demographics, market maturity, economic development and connectivity.

Under the mid-range scenario, Asia-Pacific and Africa are expected to be the fastest-growing regions between 2024 and 2050, with compound annual growth rates of 3.8 per cent and 3.6 per cent respectively.

Europe and North America, by contrast, are projected to expand at a slower pace of 2.5 per cent and 2.8 per cent.

Among the fastest-growing markets, IATA identified intra-Africa routes with annual growth of 4.9 per cent, followed by Africa-Asia-Pacific at 4.5 per cent, Asia-Pacific-Middle East at 3.9 per cent, intra-Asia-Pacific at 3.9 per cent and Africa-North America at 3.8 per cent.

It said the figures underline the need for stronger investment in aviation infrastructure and supportive regulatory frameworks in developing regions, while noting that several Europe-centred markets are likely to be among the slowest growing.

The report also pointed to a lasting structural shift in aviation demand following the Covid-19 pandemic.

Unlike previous crises, IATA said, the collapse in passenger traffic during the pandemic created a gap that is not expected to close by 2050, even under the high-growth scenario, meaning demand is unlikely to return fully to its pre-pandemic GDP-linked trend.

At the same time, the association said long-term demand remains strong even as the pace of expansion gradually slows.

According to its historical analysis, average annual growth in air travel eased from 6.1 per cent between 1972 and 1998 to 4.5 per cent between 1998 and 2024.

For the 2024-2050 period, the central scenario points to annual growth of 3.1 per cent.

IATA said this moderation reflects increasing market maturity rather than weaker appetite for flying, with total passenger volumes still expected to rise sharply in absolute terms.

The projections are based on IATA’s proprietary econometric model, which draws on data from international institutions and the association’s own demand database.

The dataset includes more than half a million observations covering about 41,000 directional country pairs over the 2011-2024 period.

The model incorporates country-level factors including population, employment, flight frequencies and aircraft size, while identifying real GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power parity, as the most important driver of demand.

Long-term economic projections are taken from OECD scenarios, while the model also factors in different paths for the global energy transition and how they could shape air travel demand.

IATA finally said that the model had been validated against historical data and showed an average prediction accuracy of 98 per cent at industry level.