Cyprus braces for ‘anarchic’ elections

Two big parties will dominate but newcomers may shake up the House

Depending on where you stand, the record participation in the upcoming parliamentary elections either augurs chaotic fragmentation – the political landscape gone unhinged – or signals a pluralistic, maturing political culture. More competition is better, the latter would say. Whatever the case, it has definitely created an opening for smaller parties/political movements. Their time has come.

Polls consistently show that at least seven parties contesting the May elections will gain seats in parliament. The threshold for entering parliament is 3.6 per cent of the votes cast.

According to the surveys, Disy and Akel will once again dominate, with Elam looking set to ‘lock’ in third place. Diko will likely rank fourth, followed by the newcomers Direct Democracy, Alma and Volt.

That would leave out Edek – a mainstay of Cypriot politics – and the Ecologists’ Movement.

The Cyprus Mail cannot publish specifics on the poll results, as by law the deadline for doing so elapsed at midnight on Saturday. At this time, on penalty of steep fines, we may not cite specific surveys or the projected respective percentages for the parties. One senior official told us that only generic and oblique references to polls are permitted.

The reasoning given by the government for these restrictions is that publishing poll numbers might ‘influence’ the election result. For example, they say, it might enhance the perception of the ‘lost vote’ – in other words, it might discourage people intending to vote for the smaller parties which polls show won’t make it into parliament.

At any rate, we can mention the basics: these elections will feature a record 753 candidates and 19 political parties/formations. That makes it 102 candidates and four parties more than in the last ballot of 2021.

The new kids on the block – like Fidias Panayiotou’s Direct Democracy and former auditor-general Odysseas Michaelides’ Alma – have certainly made an impact. Both pitch themselves as ‘anti-systemic’ parties.

But how reliable are the opinion polls?

Political analyst Christoforos Christoforou noted the significant fluctuations showing up in various polls for the projected percentages for Direct Democracy and Alma.

Again, treading a fine line, we may only mention that the fluctuation for Direct Democracy is of the order of seven per cent, and for Alma four per cent. Smaller, though significant, ranges are given for Elam and Diko.

According to Christoforou, these fluctuations are due to specific reasons.

First, there exists a mass of votes out there which are not easy to allocate. The high abstention rate from previous elections – 34 per cent five years ago – makes it hard to ‘pin down’ where those eligible voters will gravitate today.

“We’re in an ‘anarchic’ environment, if you will,” said the analyst. “It’s highly fluid.”

Second, when pollsters conduct surveys, they sort out results by comparing with previous polls. Since we now have three new parties with high numbers – Alma, Volt and Direct Democracy – we lack a reliable frame of reference, a baseline.

Third, back in 2021 around 15 per cent of the votes went to parties that did not gain seats in parliament. This included the Hunters party, Solidarity and others.

Combined, these accounted for almost 50,000 votes not getting represented in parliament.

And of these parties, points out Christoforou, only the Hunters are taking part in the current elections.

Since the Hunters got around 11,000 votes in 2021, that means there are now 40,000 votes of engaged people we don’t know where they will end up.

What of the abstention rate? Now that there are more options, will it drop? Logically, hypothetically, yes. But it could also go the other way.

Any predictions on the abstention rate are not safe, the analyst said.

Now the surveys suggest that Dipa, Edek and the Ecologists may not make it into parliament.

But again, cautioned Christoforou, don’t bank on it.

He recalled that in 2021, from some 30 polls only two projected that Dipa would get over 3 per cent. And yet, the party ended up garnering 6 per cent and entered parliament.

Clearly, a segment of the voting public doesn’t disclose their intent to pollsters.

What can be safely said is that there is greater fragmentation of the political space. That’s because the traditional partisan forces have been discredited. So people search for ‘new hope’ in the new formations.

From his own research, spanning decades, Christoforou also recalls that since 1960, 29 parties have either merged with other parties or have disappeared entirely from the scene.

OK so the competition is stiffer now. But from the perspective of the hopefuls, what drives them, we asked.

“Well, for power, for influence. Let’s recall the Greek adage – Το χρήμα πολλοί εμίσησαν, τη δόξα ουδείς – which loosely translates as ‘many have come to detest money, but none have come to detest fame’.”

There’s also the ‘15 minutes of fame’ phenomenon – some people simply enjoy the attention.

And nowadays, it’s very easy for someone to run for MP: it only takes two persons to nominate the candidate, and two more to endorse him or her. As for the registration fee for candidates, it’s a paltry €500.

Christoforou recalled a time – back in the late 1970s – when the registration fee was 100 Cypriot pounds. It was a substantial sum back then.

Plus, the eligibility age for MPs has now dropped to 21.

Meantime the mishmash of candidates has forced the traditional parties to alter their campaign tactics. Notably, this time around the blows traded by arch rivals Disy and Akel are relatively tame compared to the past.

Fearing ‘leakage’ to the upstarts, Disy and Akel have instead shifted to punching down – chiefly on Alma and Direct Democracy.

That has also meant they have largely disregarded Elam.

Even Diko has focused its energies on attacking the Alma party. Which is quite notable, said Christoforou.

“Let’s remember how in 2020 Diko took the extraordinary step of voting against the state budget, to protest the fact that the Nicos Anastasiades administration refused to hand over the ‘golden passport’ files to then auditor-general Odysseas Michaelides.

“At the time, Diko hitched their wagon to Odysseas. Now they’ve done a U-turn, their strategy being to attrit Odysseas’ Alma party.”

We also asked the analyst what he thinks of the warning that the influx of small parties might send the new parliament into disarray.

“Look, the traditional parties – as well as a section of the media – have for months pushed this talking point of parliament supposedly descending into ‘chaos’ if there are too many parties.

“But that’s nonsense. The new parliament will find ways of working together, passing laws etc – business as usual.”