Pan-European party Volt have joined the pack of parties vying for fourth place in polling ahead of this month’s parliamentary election, according to a poll released on Sunday, with pollsters appearing to show an upward trajectory for the party.
Meanwhile, the same poll has also forecast upturns in the fortunes of Edek and Dipa, with most pollsters in recent months having predicted an electoral wipeout for both.
The poll was conducted by RealPolls and asked 1,555 voters for their preferences, and like most others, forecasts that Cyprus’ “big two” parties, Disy and Akel, will once again win the most votes on polling day, though, unlike others, it predicts that both parties will secure less than 20 per cent of the vote.
Disy have been forecast to win 19.7 per cent of the vote, while Akel have been forecast to win 17.5 per cent of the vote. In both cases, such a result would constitute the lowest vote share recorded for either party in a nationwide contest in their respective histories.
Elam remain in third place, as most polls predict, and are forecast to win 14 per cent of the vote, with every poll since February having predicted the party to win between 13 and 15 per cent.
However, it is in the race to be the fourth-largest party in parliament where matters appear to have tightened up.
Former auditor-general Odysseas Michaelides’ Alma is, according to the poll, currently occupying that fourth place spot, with 9.4 per cent off the vote, though social media influencer Fidias Panayiotou’s Direct Democracy Cyprus remains close behind, with 8.7 per cent.
Diko sits in sixth place, with 7.8 per cent of the vote – a result which, like that of Disy and Akel, would constitute the worst result in a nationwide contest in the party’s history, while Volt sit only slightly behind on 7.2 per cent of the vote.
In eighth place, according to the poll, is Edek, with its forecast vote share of 3.9 per cent the highest it has received in any poll since 2024, with most pollsters in recent months having forecast that the party may receive less than two per cent of the vote.
Dipa, too, have been forecast a comparative uptick in popularity, with 3.7 per cent of the vote, which is also the highest figure the party has been forecast in any poll since 2024.
The Hunters’ Movement and the Ecologists’ Movement in tenth and eleventh place are almost neck-and-neck, with 2.8 per cent and 2.7 per cent of the vote respectively.
Meanwhile, former bar association chairman Christos Clerides’ Democratic Change (Demal) party and veteran MP Andreas Themistocleous’ Democratic National Movement (DEK) party are level on 0.6 per cent of the vote, marginally ahead of the newly formed Green Party, which sits on 0.5 per cent.
The smallest party listed by the poll is Sikou Pano! – Cypriot Greek for “Get Up!” – which has been forecast to win 0.4 per cent of the vote.
The election will take place on May 24.
Of the 56 seats which will be up for election later this month,19 will belong to MPs from the Nicosia district, 12 to MPs from the Limassol district, 11 to MPs from the Famagusta district, six to MPs from the Larnaca district, five to MPs from the Paphos district, and three to MPs from the Kyrenia district.
The Paphos district gained an extra seat ahead of May’s election due to the growth in its voting population, with that gain coming at the Nicosia district’s expense.
The Republic of Cyprus’ constitution initially foresaw a parliament with 50 voting members, of whom 35 would be Greek Cypriots and 15 would be Turkish Cypriots, as well as non-voting observers belonging to the Armenian, Latin, and Maronite communities.
Following the breakdown of constitutional order and the outbreak of intercommunal violence in 1963, the Turkish Cypriots were unable to return to their seats in parliament, leaving just 35 voting members.
That figure was raised to 56 Greek Cypriots ahead of the 1985 parliamentary elections after the constitution was altered using the doctrine of necessity. The amendment foresees 24 Turkish Cypriots also being elected, but with the Cyprus problem remaining unsolved, this has not yet happened.
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